Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210927 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.90     59.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  25.7  30.5  27.7  35.4  38.4  36.5  35.3  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   2.0   5.0   8.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        116.5 116.5 116.5 116.5 114.4 104.8  91.1  56.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  42.0  33.0 -14.0  -7.0  33.0  22.0  69.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  49.0  49.0  48.0  49.0  53.0  54.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   8.0  10.0  14.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        2.2%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%