Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.10     58.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  32.7  31.6  36.5  41.6  41.9  40.7  46.2  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   4.0  10.0  12.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.5 110.5 110.5 110.5  99.4  85.0  57.8  38.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  43.0 -13.0  -2.0  22.0  18.0  20.0  40.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  46.0  47.0  49.0  54.0  58.0  65.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   1.0   4.0   7.0  16.0  23.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons