Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210928 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.20     58.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.7  40.0  42.7  48.5  43.9  44.6  49.4  56.2  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   7.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.0 103.0 103.0 101.2  86.5  50.0  27.0  27.7  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0   8.0  12.0  19.0  17.0  35.0  36.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  55.0  58.0  69.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   6.0  10.0   8.0  19.0  26.0  32.0  26.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons