Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.70     58.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.1  43.2  46.8  44.6  44.1  45.4  51.7  52.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   9.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.2 101.2 103.0  96.0  75.4  28.1  32.2  31.8  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  13.0   9.0  11.0  11.0  19.0  39.0 -41.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  50.0  53.0  53.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  12.0   7.0   9.0  17.0  32.0  19.0  36.0  N  U  N  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons