Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210928 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.50     58.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.6  49.6  46.8  45.6  49.1  53.7  56.2  51.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.4 101.2  96.0  89.6  45.4  21.1  32.2  33.2  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  10.0   9.0  27.0  28.0  52.0 -24.0 -38.0  U  U  U  U  U  N VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  53.0  53.0  57.0  65.0  59.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   6.0   6.0  14.0  15.0  32.0  31.0  39.0  U  N  N  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons