Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210928 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.60     58.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.9  40.9  39.4  41.3  43.3  55.5  56.4  58.0 VU VU  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.2  96.2  89.3  80.0  25.9  15.3  22.7  24.7  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0   7.0  28.0  11.0  50.0  38.0   0.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  55.0  56.0  55.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   5.0  12.0   8.0  32.0  27.0  42.0  11.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons