Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210929 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.20     57.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.9  34.8  37.2  39.1  44.8  50.8  54.1  56.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.0  96.0  88.0  71.7  22.9  27.3  29.2  32.7  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  30.0  16.0  22.0  46.0  -6.0 -18.0  24.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  55.0  58.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  15.0   7.0   6.0  27.0  41.0  45.0  62.0  N  U  N  N VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons