Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210929 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.20     55.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.0  42.7  43.3  52.1  57.9  59.0  59.8  63.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.6  63.7  35.1  23.8  31.6  33.1  36.8  36.8  N  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  14.0  23.0  74.0  -1.0 -31.0 -14.0 -11.0  N  U  U  N  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  58.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  74.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   7.0  25.0  14.0  34.0  12.0  82.0  71.0  N  N VU  U VU  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons