Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210929 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.60     54.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.8  42.1  50.0  53.3  58.6  58.3  59.8  70.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.8  34.6  19.5  19.9  27.0  31.3  34.1  32.2  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  36.0  67.0  41.0  14.0   5.0  77.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  66.0  69.0  68.0  65.0  66.0  73.0  77.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  28.0  19.0  18.0  38.0  36.0   2.0 104.0  N VU VU VU VU VU  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons