Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172021 210919 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30     27.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  25.8  21.0  16.8  18.2  33.0  32.2  30.9  N  N  N  F  F  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  18.0  21.0  14.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        116.5 114.4 110.5 104.8  96.0  92.7  96.0 101.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0 100.0  77.0  63.0  63.0  55.0 -19.0 -69.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  57.0  55.0  51.0  52.0  54.0  55.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   2.0   4.0   7.0  10.0   5.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        6.3%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.0%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%       12.6%        6.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.9%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        4.2%        4.2%        4.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.2%        1.9%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        1.7%        1.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons