Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172021 210919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     29.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  20.3  19.8  21.8  30.1  31.1  27.8  21.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  11.0   6.0   4.0   3.0   4.0  10.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.5  96.2  91.0  89.3  87.7  94.4  98.0  99.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  68.0  55.0  71.0  47.0   8.0 -29.0 -19.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  56.0  53.0  51.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   7.0   5.0   8.0   5.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.2%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        6.0%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        8.3%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        1.2%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        1.0%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons