Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172021 210920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80     30.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  19.2  19.9  27.0  29.3  30.7  22.7  26.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   6.0   4.0   3.0   4.0   7.0   7.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.2  91.0  89.3  87.7  89.3  96.2  98.0  99.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  48.0  77.0  69.0 -19.0 -35.0 -34.0 -18.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  49.0  47.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   7.0   6.0   9.0   7.0   5.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.3%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        5.2%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.1%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        7.9%        4.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.9%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons