Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172021 210920 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40     32.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  18.1  27.3  30.2  31.4  28.5  18.0  25.1  F  F  N  N  U  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   5.0  14.0  11.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.4  91.0  89.3  87.7  92.7  98.0  99.8 101.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  86.0  71.0  30.0   8.0 -40.0 -13.0 -32.0  N  F  N  N  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  53.0  49.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   9.0   7.0   9.0   3.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.0%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.4%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons