Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172021 210920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     33.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  29.6  32.2  34.1  32.4  19.9  24.5  25.5  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   9.0  11.0  13.0  11.0  14.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.7  89.3  89.3  91.0  92.7  92.7  94.4  98.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  76.0   0.0  14.0 -61.0  -5.0 -11.0  20.0  N  N  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   7.0   8.0   7.0   7.0   2.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.6%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons