Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172021 210920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90     34.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  32.9  37.1  34.0  26.0  20.5  30.5  34.6  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   9.0  11.0  10.0  13.0   9.0  16.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.3  89.3  91.0  92.7  92.7  92.7  96.2  99.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  -9.0   0.0  13.0 -36.0 -22.0  -9.0  14.0  N  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  45.0  50.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   6.0  11.0  10.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   3.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons