Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172021 210921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60     35.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  33.1  31.1  28.8  19.7  23.6  27.6  35.7  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0  11.0  13.0  15.0  16.0  17.0  18.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.3  81.0  82.7  82.7  82.7  84.4  88.0  89.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0   7.0   7.0 -69.0 -30.0  -2.0  11.0   3.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  49.0  48.0  43.0  42.0  45.0  47.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  11.0   9.0   6.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   3.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.5%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons