Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172021 210921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20     36.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.2  28.3  25.7  21.2  24.4  31.6  38.9  39.3  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  17.0  15.0  12.0  21.0  14.0  12.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.7  92.7  92.7  92.7  96.2  99.8  99.8  94.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0 -45.0 -32.0 -41.0 -12.0  39.0  -5.0  -7.0  N VU VU VU  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  47.0  45.0  46.0  48.0  47.0  51.0  U  U VU VU VU  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   6.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   6.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons