Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172021 210921 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20     37.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  26.8  21.5  20.1  31.1  34.6  37.5  39.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  15.0  13.0  17.0  17.0  12.0   8.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.7  92.7  92.7  94.4  98.0 101.6  96.2  91.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -51.0 -11.0  -4.0 -14.0  18.0   8.0 -22.0  -8.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  44.0  44.0  47.0  47.0  51.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   5.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons