Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172021 210922 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10     38.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  19.1  24.7  27.4  31.9  35.0  37.3  41.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  15.0  19.0  23.0  16.0  12.0   8.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.7  99.4  99.4 101.2 104.8 104.8  97.7  91.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0 -25.0 -10.0   7.0  19.0  24.0  26.0  20.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  41.0  40.0  43.0  46.0  50.0  51.0  54.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   6.0   7.0   6.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons