Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172021 210922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40     38.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  25.1  29.3  28.4  38.8  37.5  46.4  34.7  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  19.0  23.0  22.0  12.0  11.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.4  99.4 101.2 103.0 106.6 101.2  92.7  88.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0 -10.0   9.0   1.0   9.0   8.0   3.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  40.0  42.0  44.0  47.0  50.0  51.0  53.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   5.0   3.0   6.0   6.0  10.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons