Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172021 210922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80     39.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  31.0  31.0  37.1  40.1  38.5  43.1  31.9  N  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  25.0  23.0  17.0  11.0  10.0   5.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.4 101.2 103.0 106.6 104.8  99.4  91.1  86.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0   9.0   1.0   6.0   2.0  35.0   9.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  42.0  43.0  45.0  49.0  50.0  52.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   5.0   5.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  11.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons