Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172021 210923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.90     41.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  35.5  38.8  39.6  43.4  36.5  35.8  20.4  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  28.0  19.0  13.0  10.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.8 108.5 108.5 108.5 103.0  94.3  88.0  83.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0 -15.0 -33.0 -12.0   9.0   3.0  25.0   0.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  42.0  45.0  47.0  49.0  52.0  50.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  14.0   8.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons