Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.20     34.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.4  10.8   9.6  10.3  13.5  16.2  18.0  18.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  26.0  18.0  13.0  20.0  18.0  23.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 134.3 129.6 129.6 134.3 135.0 132.0 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  11.0  19.0  43.0  45.0  44.0  47.0  42.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  64.0  66.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   1.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        2.7%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%       22.4%       13.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%       11.3%        6.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%       10.7%        6.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       10.7%        6.0%
 45kt / 36h        7.3%       31.1%       19.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.4%        7.2%
 55kt / 48h       15.6%       21.3%       18.5%
 70kt / 48h        7.1%       12.7%        9.9%
 65kt / 72h       21.8%       26.3%       24.0%