Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.40     35.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.8   9.6   7.9   9.2  12.2  14.4  14.5  13.0  F  F VF  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  18.0  13.0  15.0  17.0  23.0  22.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 129.6 127.3 129.6 135.0 135.0 129.6 122.9  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0   9.0  29.0  40.0  61.0  64.0  44.0  57.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  63.0  62.0  58.0  58.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        3.5%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%       28.1%       16.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%       15.8%        9.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%       14.8%        8.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%       14.8%        8.4%
 45kt / 36h        9.8%       42.8%       26.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       23.8%       11.9%
 55kt / 48h       23.6%       31.9%       27.8%
 70kt / 48h       10.5%       21.5%       16.0%
 65kt / 72h       34.2%       39.4%       36.8%