Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.80     37.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.6   7.7   8.6  11.6  12.5  16.7  14.2  18.7  F VF  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  15.0  17.0  19.0  19.0  20.0  27.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        117.3 117.3 119.6 124.3 124.3 122.0 115.1 108.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  17.0  21.0  55.0  36.0  43.0  49.0  55.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  62.0  59.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  51.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.2%       11.2%        9.2%
 25kt / 24h       20.1%       50.4%       35.3%
 30kt / 24h       15.2%       37.7%       26.4%
 35kt / 24h       14.6%       37.7%       26.1%
 40kt / 24h       14.6%       37.7%       26.1%
 45kt / 36h       23.7%       61.7%       42.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       45.2%       22.6%
 55kt / 48h       24.6%       40.1%       32.3%
 70kt / 48h       14.4%       31.6%       23.0%
 65kt / 72h       27.4%       39.2%       33.3%