Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.00     39.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.2   9.8   9.4  10.6  14.5  17.2  13.7  17.3 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  20.0  18.0  20.0  23.0  25.0  43.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        107.3 112.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 112.0 105.1 100.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  19.0  54.0  44.0  59.0  32.0  99.0  62.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  51.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.2%       23.2%       22.2%
 25kt / 24h       41.1%       66.5%       53.8%
 30kt / 24h       40.4%       59.9%       50.2%
 35kt / 24h       40.4%       59.9%       50.2%
 40kt / 24h       40.4%       59.9%       50.2%
 45kt / 36h       39.9%       69.3%       54.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       55.1%       27.6%
 55kt / 48h       27.5%       45.3%       36.4%
 70kt / 48h       17.0%       33.4%       25.2%
 65kt / 72h       29.6%       37.5%       33.6%