Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210924 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10     40.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.2  12.0  11.5  12.1  16.1  13.5  19.1  16.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  21.0  20.0  25.0  26.0  26.0  42.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        102.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  97.3  92.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  67.0  63.0  73.0  35.0  48.0  41.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  54.0  56.0  55.0  52.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       47.4%       40.1%       43.8%
 25kt / 24h       72.1%       79.2%       75.6%
 30kt / 24h       72.1%       78.2%       75.1%
 35kt / 24h       72.1%       78.2%       75.1%
 40kt / 24h       72.1%       78.1%       75.1%
 45kt / 36h       50.1%       71.9%       61.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       59.0%       29.5%
 55kt / 48h       34.8%       56.5%       45.6%
 70kt / 48h       18.4%       36.9%       27.7%
 65kt / 72h       26.5%       34.2%       30.3%