Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40     41.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.9   9.8   9.9  12.3  14.4  12.5  15.1  14.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  20.0  23.0  25.0  25.0  30.0  48.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  94.6  90.1  85.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  53.0  70.0  72.0  17.0  25.0  38.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       56.3%       42.6%       49.4%
 25kt / 24h       82.1%       79.2%       80.7%
 30kt / 24h       82.1%       79.2%       80.7%
 35kt / 24h       82.1%       79.2%       80.7%
 40kt / 24h       82.1%       79.2%       80.7%
 45kt / 36h       53.1%       66.7%       59.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       52.4%       26.2%
 55kt / 48h       33.8%       52.8%       43.3%
 70kt / 48h       17.9%       30.0%       24.0%
 65kt / 72h       24.5%       27.5%       26.0%