Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60     43.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.4  10.0  12.9  12.4  11.7  13.0  12.3  15.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  24.0  25.0  24.0  27.0  42.0  41.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  97.0  92.3  87.9  83.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  65.0  60.0  13.0  46.0  43.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  56.0  54.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.1%       23.2%       21.2%
 25kt / 24h       43.6%       62.9%       53.3%
 30kt / 24h       41.1%       60.1%       50.6%
 35kt / 24h       41.1%       60.1%       50.6%
 40kt / 24h       41.1%       60.1%       50.6%
 45kt / 36h       35.6%       42.8%       39.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       25.4%       12.7%
 55kt / 48h       24.9%       38.4%       31.7%
 70kt / 48h       10.7%       13.9%       12.3%
 65kt / 72h       28.9%       18.6%       23.7%