Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210924 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90     44.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.9  13.6  12.7  12.5  11.3  11.9  15.2  13.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  25.0  24.0  25.0  36.0  42.0  40.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  89.6  85.1  80.7  80.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  27.0  28.0  34.0  52.0  24.0  55.0  50.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  57.0  55.0  51.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       24.2%       28.6%       26.4%
 25kt / 24h       47.3%       66.8%       57.0%
 30kt / 24h       40.3%       66.8%       53.6%
 35kt / 24h       38.6%       66.8%       52.7%
 40kt / 24h       38.6%       66.1%       52.3%
 45kt / 36h       37.6%       44.6%       41.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       28.0%       14.0%
 55kt / 48h       24.1%       39.5%       31.8%
 70kt / 48h        9.9%       13.6%       11.8%
 65kt / 72h       24.7%       15.7%       20.2%