Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210925 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30     45.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7  12.1  11.9  11.7  15.3  13.0  16.0  11.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  26.0  32.0  43.0  40.0  47.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  77.0  74.6  70.1  67.9  63.6  63.6  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  58.0  51.0  59.0  54.0  33.0  64.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  56.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  51.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       68.0%       35.8%       51.9%
 25kt / 24h       84.1%       62.0%       73.0%
 30kt / 24h       84.1%       61.3%       72.7%
 35kt / 24h       84.1%       61.3%       72.7%
 40kt / 24h       84.1%       61.3%       72.7%
 45kt / 36h       66.8%       41.5%       54.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       25.8%       12.9%
 55kt / 48h       23.5%       19.2%       21.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%