Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70     46.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  11.1   9.9  12.4  13.2  12.5  12.3  11.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  25.0  32.0  40.0  44.0  43.0  50.0  39.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         67.0  64.6  62.3  60.1  55.7  53.6  53.6  55.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  57.0  56.0  51.0  31.0  13.0  60.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       62.8%       32.0%       47.4%
 25kt / 24h       74.9%       53.3%       64.1%
 30kt / 24h       74.9%       50.2%       62.5%
 35kt / 24h       74.9%       50.2%       62.5%
 40kt / 24h       74.9%       50.2%       62.5%
 45kt / 36h       72.4%       41.2%       56.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%