Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210925 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80     47.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.4   9.9  13.0  14.3  11.7  11.5  10.4  13.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  32.0  37.0  40.0  38.0  44.0  49.0  37.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         54.6  52.3  50.1  47.9  43.6  43.6  43.6  45.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  63.0  51.0  20.0  42.0  55.0  36.0  47.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  58.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       58.5%       25.1%       41.8%
 25kt / 24h       47.3%       35.7%       41.5%
 30kt / 24h       47.3%       30.1%       38.7%
 35kt / 24h       47.3%       30.1%       38.7%
 40kt / 24h       47.3%       30.1%       38.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%