Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10     48.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.4  12.8  14.4  12.9  13.5  13.3  12.3  15.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  37.0  40.0  39.0  39.0  48.0  42.0  36.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         42.3  40.1  37.9  35.7  33.6  33.6  33.6  37.9  U  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  22.0  -7.0   2.0  23.0  54.0  26.0  57.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  55.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       52.4%       18.1%       35.2%
 25kt / 24h       22.4%       20.8%       21.6%
 30kt / 24h       22.4%       14.8%       18.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%