Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210926 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40     48.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.1  14.7  14.7  16.7  14.1  12.0  13.7  14.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  39.0  38.0  38.0  45.0  42.0  34.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         27.9  25.7  23.6  23.6  21.5  23.6  25.7  30.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0   8.0  -2.0  15.0  17.0  34.0  38.0  46.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       34.0%        0.0%       17.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%