Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210926 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70     49.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  16.2  18.2  16.9   9.7  10.7  13.3  16.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  38.0  39.0  43.0  46.0  35.0  35.0  53.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         25.7  21.5  21.5  21.5  23.6  25.7  27.9  37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0   9.0  21.0  22.0  23.0  43.0  26.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.3%        0.0%        6.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%