Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210926 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     50.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  18.4  17.7  14.6  11.3  13.7  13.2  17.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  43.0  45.0  48.0  45.0  35.0  41.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         25.7  23.6  23.6  23.6  23.6  25.7  30.1  39.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  18.0  29.0  12.0  19.0  18.0  41.0  22.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  51.0  51.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        0.0%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%