Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00     50.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  17.8  13.5  11.1  13.5  12.9  15.9  16.7  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  44.0  49.0  50.0  40.0  35.0  47.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         18.6  18.6  18.6  18.6  20.7  22.9  27.3  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  22.0  18.0   3.0  29.0  11.0  16.0  57.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  50.0  50.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%