Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210927 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00     51.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     46.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  13.2  13.3  16.9  15.2  18.0  17.4  19.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  54.0  47.0  38.0  32.0  48.0  65.0  60.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         26.5  26.5  28.6  28.6  32.9  37.3  45.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  23.0  19.0   8.0  19.0 -10.0  45.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  49.0  50.0  52.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.0%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%