Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210927 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00     52.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  19.4  19.8  18.4  18.7  14.4  19.0  17.7  F  N  N  F  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  35.0  31.0  33.0  52.0  65.0  63.0  54.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  54.6  54.6  59.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0   6.0  -5.0  15.0   0.0  49.0  18.0  81.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  46.0  46.0  48.0  50.0  53.0  56.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.7%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        3.9%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.7%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.3%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        2.1%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h       14.3%        1.5%        7.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%