Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210928 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     52.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  18.5  16.4  15.8  19.0  13.7  20.2  21.2  F  N  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  32.0  33.0  40.0  57.0  73.0  46.0  58.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  54.6  57.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  -8.0  13.0  15.0   1.0  45.0  56.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  46.0  48.0  49.0  52.0  54.0  60.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   3.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.0%        4.6%        6.8%
 25kt / 24h        6.0%        9.9%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.0%        6.8%        6.4%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%        6.7%        5.6%
 40kt / 24h        4.5%        6.5%        5.5%
 45kt / 36h       37.3%        5.2%       21.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%