Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     53.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  16.8  16.7  19.1  13.9  16.3  15.8  25.2  N  F  F  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  33.0  43.0  53.0  60.0  53.0  47.0  27.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  49.6  49.6  54.3  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  -3.0  17.0   3.0  44.0  38.0  56.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  47.0  47.0  48.0  48.0  53.0  58.0  60.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   6.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.5%        5.5%        8.5%
 25kt / 24h        7.4%       10.2%        8.8%
 30kt / 24h        7.4%        7.0%        7.2%
 35kt / 24h        6.0%        7.0%        6.5%
 40kt / 24h        6.0%        6.6%        6.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%