Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210928 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70     54.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  18.0  16.9  12.6  15.9  13.9  25.5  18.7  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  53.0  60.0  65.0  63.0  52.0  28.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.0  47.0  47.0  44.6  44.6  49.3  50.0  44.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0   9.0   6.0  31.0  20.0  31.0  64.0 114.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  46.0  46.0  49.0  51.0  55.0  62.0  60.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  10.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.6%        2.7%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.1%        6.0%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        4.1%        3.9%        4.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        3.4%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%