Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210929 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60     55.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  10.6  10.0  18.5  15.4  24.5  18.0  22.1  F  F  F  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  64.0  71.0  67.0  52.0  29.0  16.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.0  47.0  44.6  44.6  47.0  50.0  47.0  25.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  25.0  28.0  27.0  57.0  75.0  94.0  84.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  48.0  51.0  50.0  56.0  61.0  61.0  54.0 VU  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   5.0   8.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.4%        2.5%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h        4.2%        4.9%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        4.2%        2.7%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        2.2%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%