Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210929 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10     56.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  12.4  19.3  19.4  20.4  19.0  20.4  26.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  72.0  67.0  50.0  49.0  22.0  20.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.6  44.6  44.6  47.0  50.0  50.0  35.7  14.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  30.0  43.0  37.0  90.0  68.0  89.0  94.0  U  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  50.0  50.0  51.0  60.0  60.0  54.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   9.0   2.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.4%        2.4%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        4.2%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        2.5%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.0%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%