Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210929 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     57.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  21.0  19.8  17.7  22.7  15.5  25.0  28.2  F  N  N  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  66.0  47.0  44.0  32.0  16.0  13.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.6  44.6  44.6  47.0  50.0  44.6  23.5   9.3  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  55.0  22.0  43.0  50.0 101.0  84.0  92.0  N  N  U  N  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  48.0  49.0  54.0  60.0  59.0  52.0  47.0 VU  U  U  U  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   5.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.7%        3.9%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h        5.8%        6.9%        6.3%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%        4.4%        4.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        3.9%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%