Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210930 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30     58.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  17.8  16.6  19.9  14.8  16.5  24.6  20.0  N  F  F  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  50.0  44.0  46.0  22.0  19.0   5.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         39.6  42.0  44.3  45.0  45.0  28.6   9.4   6.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  24.0  50.0  65.0  77.0 109.0  85.0 115.0  N  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  55.0  58.0  59.0  56.0  51.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   3.0   4.0   9.0   5.0   8.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.8%        4.7%        8.8%
 25kt / 24h        8.4%        8.2%        8.3%
 30kt / 24h        7.6%        5.1%        6.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%        4.7%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%