Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00     58.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  16.2  18.8  20.6  16.0  24.9  20.7  21.1  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  44.0  44.0  30.0  16.0  13.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         34.6  37.0  40.0  40.0  34.6  13.5  -0.7   4.4 VU  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  55.0  79.0  60.0  99.0  67.0 131.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  54.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  53.0  49.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   6.0   7.0   7.0  14.0   8.0   4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.0%        5.2%       10.6%
 25kt / 24h        9.5%        7.9%        8.7%
 30kt / 24h        8.6%        4.6%        6.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%