Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210930 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10     59.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  18.9  20.7  14.8  18.4  23.9  18.6  12.2  F  N  N  F  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  46.0  28.0  22.0  13.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         39.3  40.0  40.0  39.3  19.4   1.0   2.7   1.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  63.0  60.0  68.0  99.0 100.0 112.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  58.0  59.0  60.0  55.0  49.0  49.0  58.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   9.0  10.0   5.0   6.0   6.0   2.0 -19.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.3%        1.9%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%        3.5%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        2.0%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%