Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 210930 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.00     60.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  21.8  16.6  16.4  22.8  22.8  17.5  18.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  33.0  25.0  13.0   8.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  34.6  11.6  -2.3   2.7  -2.3  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  56.0  72.0  90.0  96.0 111.0  68.0  89.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  61.0  58.0  51.0  48.0  54.0  53.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  10.0   7.0   9.0  10.0  20.0 -14.0 -11.0  N  U  N  U  U VU VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.0%        1.8%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.2%        3.7%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        2.1%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%